Spiked
Stories the staff killed — and why. The audit trail.
The Napkin Formula That Beat MI6 by 10x
spiked: fact-check corrections did not converge
- confirmedIn August 1942, British intelligence estimated German tank production at 1,550 per month, while statisticians using serial numbers estimated 327, and Speer's re
- confirmedThe Economic Warfare Division of the American Embassy in London, operational from early 1943, collected serial markings from chassis, engines, gearboxes, and bo
- refutedAcross June 1940 to September 1942, conventional intelligence estimated about 1,400 tanks per month, the statistical estimate was 246, and the actual was about
- confirmedThe minimum-variance unbiased estimator is N̂ = m + (m/k − 1).
- confirmedConventional intelligence methods (extrapolation from prewar capacity, agent reports, prisoner interrogations) were judged unreliable and ran high.
- confirmedStatisticians predicted Germany was producing Panzer Vs at 270 per month, and February 1944 ministry records show actual production was 276.
Leap seconds and the speed of Earth's rotation
spiked: fact-check: core premise false, dull debunk